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The prelude to war???

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Oldseadog

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Posted At: 08/02/2010 10:31:20
With the Obama administrations popularity going into freefall, is war against Iran his 'get out' wildcard?

A Jerusalem Post correspondent seems to think so! Link

Is it now a matter of 'when' rather than 'if'?

OSD
James W-M

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Posted At: 08/02/2010 10:43:53
Not a chance at the moment. Even the mighty US could not sustain a war on three fronts. I guess this is wishful thinking by someone in Israel-and they certainly couldn't go it on their own unless they drop the bomb they would have us believe they don't really have.
GOG

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Posted At: 08/02/2010 10:51:19

Intreresting link OSD - I am not convinced for similar reasons to James.

If sufficiently provoked the US may decide to tacitly encourage Israel to take out the Iranian nuclear sites. Even that would be very dangerous for the US as it would pi$$ China off big time.

Direct action by the US........I very much doubt it.

Dodgy

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Posted At: 08/02/2010 11:42:10
Attacking Iran would be economic suicide for the West, with oil prices rocketing.

Israel will continue with its pompous posturing, but no-one is really taking notice - except Iran, which is planning attacks on Western oil interests if it needs to retaliate.


GOG

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Posted At: 08/02/2010 14:41:59
Quoting Dodgy (08/02/2010 @ 11:42:10):
Attacking Iran would be economic suicide for the West, with oil prices rocketing.

Israel will continue with its pompous posturing, but no-one is really taking notice - except Iran, which is planning attacks on Western oil interests if it needs to retaliate.




Will those attacks by Iran be before or after they anihilate the state of Israel?
DaleyDell

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Posted At: 08/02/2010 14:51:47
When was the previous occasion on which Iran attacked anyone?

Hmmm
Oldseadog

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Posted At: 08/02/2010 15:07:51
When they expanded the Persian Empire, long before the Ottomans came along, and long before it was carved up!

Link

A bit before my time!

OSD
CeeCee

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Posted At: 08/02/2010 15:17:09
Quoting Oldseadog (08/02/2010 @ 15:07:51):
When they expanded the Persian Empire, long before the Ottomans came along, and long before it was carved up into Iran, Iraq,Saudi Arabia, Palastine and most of Turkey to name but a few!

A bit before my time!

OSD


That'll be just before we conquered the world then?
Dodgy

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Posted At: 08/02/2010 15:18:50
Quoting GOG (08/02/2010 @ 14:41:59):
Quoting Dodgy (08/02/2010 @ 11:42:10):
Attacking Iran would be economic suicide for the West, with oil prices rocketing.

Israel will continue with its pompous posturing, but no-one is really taking notice - except Iran, which is planning attacks on Western oil interests if it needs to retaliate.




Will those attacks by Iran be before or after they anihilate the state of Israel?




Don't be silly, Gog - you're normally an intelligent person. Israel has the nukes and the missiles to deliver them! And judging from the past 50 years, the naked aggressive will to do so!



DaleyDell

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Posted At: 08/02/2010 15:51:35
Quoting Oldseadog (08/02/2010 @ 15:07:51):
When they expanded the Persian Empire, long before the Ottomans came along, and long before it was carved up!

Link

A bit before my time!

OSD


The very reason why I asked the question Osd!

Wink
Littleotis

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Posted At: 08/02/2010 16:17:25
Quoting DaleyDell (08/02/2010 @ 14:51:47):
When was the previous occasion on which Iran attacked anyone?

Hmmm


Splendid observation DD.
Iran.
1) The worlds second largest oil producer.
2) The worlds third largest oil reserves.
3 )Second largest reserves of natural gas

They could turn off almost the entire ME oil tap.

They have a coast which runs almost the entire length of the Gulf of Hormuz.

World tankers pass through just one 2 mile channel of this Gulf.

Being so geographically located they wouldn't need much military power to make their point.

They still have a way to go in order to achieve 90% uranium enrichment. They would have to test the bomb, and the delivery system. So a nuclear threat is not imminent

Which countries including USA could afford a war. Would the general public support yet more hostilities.

Declaring war would not be a good day at the office.

Compromise and negotiation, seems a more sensible solution unless we want to bankrupt ourselves and expose more of our young service men and women as more cannon fodder.

A bit rambling - apologies.






Sonmon

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Posted At: 08/02/2010 16:29:27
When was the last time America declared war on anyone?

Sonmon
Littleotis

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Posted At: 08/02/2010 16:57:08
Quoting Sonmon (08/02/2010 @ 16:29:27):
When was the last time America declared war on anyone?

Sonmon


If you Google American Wars, the military conflicts in which they have been involved is very interesting.

With regards to the topic, do you think it would be in the Wests interest to enjoin a military conflict with Iran.
mudkid

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Posted At: 09/02/2010 01:32:45
Quoting Dodgy (08/02/2010 @ 15:18:50):
Quoting GOG (08/02/2010 @ 14:41:59):
Quoting Dodgy (08/02/2010 @ 11:42:10):
Attacking Iran would be economic suicide for the West, with oil prices rocketing.

Israel will continue with its pompous posturing, but no-one is really taking notice - except Iran, which is planning attacks on Western oil interests if it needs to retaliate.




Will those attacks by Iran be before or after they anihilate the state of Israel?




Don't be silly, Gog - you're normally an intelligent person. Israel has the nukes and the missiles to deliver them! And judging from the past 50 years, the naked aggressive will to do so!





But they havent done so in decades of provocation.

SukieB

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Posted At: 09/02/2010 01:41:02
Quoting Dodgy (08/02/2010 @ 15:18:50):



Don't be silly, Gog - you're normally an intelligent person. Israel has the nukes and the missiles to deliver them! And judging from the past 50 years, the naked aggressive will to do so!





Why would Israel need to go to war when according to some posters they control world governments ?

Better to pull the stings than be puppets dangling on the end

justagal

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Posted At: 09/02/2010 09:02:45
It's being so cheerful that keeps you going OSD Big Grin

For reasons already mentioned, I don't think so.
Frances A

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Posted At: 09/02/2010 09:20:44
Quoting SukieB (09/02/2010 @ 01:41:02):
Quoting Dodgy (08/02/2010 @ 15:18:50):



Don't be silly, Gog - you're normally an intelligent person. Israel has the nukes and the missiles to deliver them! And judging from the past 50 years, the naked aggressive will to do so!



Why would Israel need to go to war when according to some posters they control world governments ?

Better to pull the stings than be puppets dangling on the end



a point neatly made Sukie ...

there seems to be an element of anti Israel ( anti semitic? ) feeling in the zone which surprisingly is allowed to go unchecked ... but thankfully only from a very few. . although they do make a lot of noise. It has happened before. I don't much care for unnecessarily emotive imagery such as " naked aggressive " ... particularly when the reality is that those living in Israel have to endure deadly rockets and mortar shells being fired at them all day every day from Hamas. Doing the weekly shop and sending the children off to school isn't quite the same there as it is here. We rarely hear this side of events..
Dodgy

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Posted At: 09/02/2010 10:04:30
Quoting Littleotis (08/02/2010 @ 16:17:25):
Quoting DaleyDell (08/02/2010 @ 14:51:47):
When was the previous occasion on which Iran attacked anyone?

Hmmm


Splendid observation DD.
Iran.
1) The worlds second largest oil producer.
2) The worlds third largest oil reserves.
3 )Second largest reserves of natural gas

They could turn off almost the entire ME oil tap.

They have a coast which runs almost the entire length of the Gulf of Hormuz.

World tankers pass through just one 2 mile channel of this Gulf.

Being so geographically located they wouldn't need much military power to make their point.

They still have a way to go in order to achieve 90% uranium enrichment. They would have to test the bomb, and the delivery system. So a nuclear threat is not imminent

Which countries including USA could afford a war. Would the general public support yet more hostilities.

Declaring war would not be a good day at the office.

Compromise and negotiation, seems a more sensible solution unless we want to bankrupt ourselves and expose more of our young service men and women as more cannon fodder.

A bit rambling - apologies.





All true. However the potential rogue element remains unilateral action by Israel, based on paranoia. It is a test for the Obama administration to see if it can reign-in its recalcitrant child.







GOG

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Posted At: 09/02/2010 10:59:57
Quoting Dodgy (08/02/2010 @ 15:18:50):
Quoting GOG (08/02/2010 @ 14:41:59):
Quoting Dodgy (08/02/2010 @ 11:42:10):
Attacking Iran would be economic suicide for the West, with oil prices rocketing.

Israel will continue with its pompous posturing, but no-one is really taking notice - except Iran, which is planning attacks on Western oil interests if it needs to retaliate.




Will those attacks by Iran be before or after they anihilate the state of Israel?


Don't be silly, Gog - you're normally an intelligent person. Israel has the nukes and the missiles to deliver them! And judging from the past 50 years, the naked aggressive will to do so!



And do not be naive Dodgy - Please read the thread "IRAN ups the stakes".
GOG

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Posted At: 09/02/2010 11:16:04
Little O - I read that Iran is officially at 3.5% enrichment. The step from 3.5% enrichment to 20% enrichment is the most difficult technically. The step then from 20% to 90% is much easier and quicker. The big difficulty is having enough centrifuge capacity. Iran is supposed to have 3000 officially on stream.
Analysts say that it is highly likely that they have more than this and are already secretly on the way to 20%.
Given Ahmadinejad's propensity to announce new progress which in fact has already been made then they are probably already achieving 20% on some of their material and it will not be long until they have enough.

Now I would say that none of this matters a damn and we may as well just ignore them and let them get on with it, IF Ahmadinejad was not on record as wanting to anihilate Israel because, I believe that the current Iranian leadership is fanatical enough to carry out such a threat regardless of the stupidity of doing so.

If the leadership were to change then it would be a different ball game altogether.
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